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Hello all and welcome to my blog!

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Monday, April 20, 2015

04/20 LONG SET-UPS









Above are long set-ups. Feel free to pick and choose ones that suit your investing/trading styles.
Good Luck and Enjoy reading!

Sunday, April 19, 2015

Weekend Market Review

It was quite a roller coaster for the bulls I have to admit. Before Friday action, price looked ripe for a break out to all time high, however as it approached the last hurdle (211s resistance level), things went down hill for the bulls. Now it slightly lost its 50DMA and the RSI14 50 line. That is enough damage to wake me up to reassess medium term  and long term holds. Now, do I sell based on one day, 1.15% down after market has been in up trend for years. The answer is NO. However, for a lot of traders, 50DMA is a very important level to watch as things can turn very negative very quickly when price dips below it.
To help me to put things in perspective, I  look at other time frames as well.
Above is a 3-yr weekly chart of S&P 500, with net weekly decline of almost 1%, but overall picture isn't that bad as price is still in consolidation period, upper half of red rectangle box, after long period of up trend since June 2012. So for LT hold it's not a sell for me, unless price decisively breaks below the 2050 blue line.
Now let's study SPX daily chart. It's obvious that price is in a range between 2040-2120 and seems to be in a symmetrical triangle consolidation. If this pattern is a correct pattern, I expect a bounce soon to retest 50DMA and the gap that it left behind on Friday down leg. When and how much of a bounce should one expect?
According to this chart, when percent of stocks above 50DMA makes a lower low and price  stops the bleeding and bounces for days. As mentioned previously, 50dma is level that a lot of traders/investors use to initiate buys and sells. For me, this is positive divergence. So I will look for confirmation signal to add more short term long positions.

Above is the hourly SPY chart, which I use to detect for a bounce based on oversold condition and as indicator turning up above 30 line from extreme condition. As you can see price now is in similar condition as past ones (annotated with long blue arrows). This could mean that price is either ready to bounce or in consolidation then bounce.
Please be mindful that this chart is hourly chart, which means every candle represents an hour of printed price. So bounce here is in term of hours. My guess is the bounce based on this hourly chart, likely is short lived with high probability of it to turn down to either make higher low or lower low, and potentially create a positive divergence in the process,  before reversing up for a bounce which could last day(s) which I called out in daily charts above.

What about small caps, if a bounce is to be expected. where would I initiate long positions? According to the hourly chart below, price seems to be in consolidation then bounce as it headed close to 200SMA, near bottom channel line. Also, IWM just made fresh all time high on Thursday so it is fairly possible that that the high may be retested sooner or later, or even a higher high to be made with  negative divergence before any meaningful pull back, in my honest opinion.
That is it for me. Good luck with trading on Monday and hope that you find some of the materials from my posts are helpful in some ways.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend!


Friday, April 17, 2015

$SPX BRIEF UPDATE

Price action is anything but bearish. I don't have any hard evidences to write off this bull run just yet. In trading, price action is KING and ones should trade with the direction of price action to hopefully make money.
The daily chart above, MACD histograms and 5dma are suggesting that short term trend is still up. There is a last resistance TL (last hurdle) for bulls to overcome before continuing its up trend and achieving all time high. Being near the resistance level, price has the tendency to be very volatile and intraday pullbacks are normally expected. However these pullbacks usually get bought very quickly. So I will use these dips as buying opportunity for intraday plays. I will post entries/exits via StockTwits and Twitter. You can follow me there or view my live posts through StockTwits and Twitter widgets on this blog.

As always, Thanks for reading my posts and best of luck with trading.

Thursday, April 16, 2015

NQ Speculative Stock

NQ Mobile is one of the speculative stocks that I follow. It has made all time low since 01/29. Since then it appears to be in consolidation process and may be some sign of bottoming out. A solid move above 4.31 with volume, then expect PT: 5.4

Wednesday Night Market Review

Overall today price action was somewhat bullish. All major indices were crossing and closing above critical levels, Dow Jones $DJIA above 18000, Nasdaq Composite $COMPQ above 5000, S&P500 $SPX above 2100, Russel 2000 $RUT above 1275, and &NYSE Composite above 11100.  Most importantly $RUT and $NYA, both achieved all time high today.

Now let's quickly review  the charts:
Chart #1: Bullish Percentage

The bullish percentage of the bench mark $SPX is now comfortably above 70%, and is on its way to retest the critical resistance level which it failed every time previously. Based on this criterion alone, I would not think now is the time to short the market heavily. Intraday shorting based on short term overbought condition may be ok. However, due to last half an hour heavily selling, I don't think there is much room left to short for quick scalp and also price is not that far away from 5dma, which is usually the bounce point.


Chart #2: Broad Market Price and Breadth Snapshot

This chart nicely illustrates that market as a whole is in agreement of recent up trend, from S&P 1500 Composite, consisted of small caps, midcap, large cap, S&P 500 equal weight, and NYSE Composite are all above their corresponding 10ema. And most of these are just a hair away from all time closing high. price and market breadth, advance/decline issues and volumes of NYSE Composite already made all time high again today. So, things are looking quite rosy for the bulls in near future, or at least next couple weeks

Chart #3: NYMO

This is one of the to go to charts for a lot of traders I know. According to this chart, there is still some up room before reaching the extreme level, and it is currently pointing up which means bullish bias.


Chart #4: $SPX Broadening Top
Ever since this pattern was developed, over a year ago, I noted that all previous critical up swings are at least 11 points or greater. Since all time frames are currently in up trend, I would bet this up swing is no different. As of today close, SPY is 210.43 and is 6.92 pts away from low. Based on previous price patterns, I strongly believe that SPY can print at least 4pts higher from here. As for daily RSI 14 period, it is 57 and is above its 5d avg RSI. If take out the declining resistance line, price can fly much higher. Last indicator on this chart is the oscillator, which is not yet at extreme condition. Therefore, it is very likely that price will head higher.



Chart #5: NYSE Composite
Today price just printed fresh all time high, also breadth indicators mentioned in Chart #2 made new high and confirmed the up move. Since this composite consists of over 2000 stocks, therefore its action today should reflect other indices if not later then sooner.


Chart #6: New Highs-New Lows:
I have sufficient texts included in the chart. So no need for me to explain further. By the way I mainly use this to spot for divergences.

Chart #7: Large Cap, $SPX: Bull Target NLT: 2129.5
This target I estimated over a week ago. The way things go up to this point I don't there is going to be any issues for bulls to achieve the target.

Chart #8: Small Cap, IWM
Price broke out and closed above breakout pt with descend volume. Bulls should hope for a follow through day.


Chart #9: Mid Cap, MDY
Price printed new high today. No doubt it will make the rectangle box target in chart.

In summary, I think price action and charts suggest higher price to come. So don't fight the tape, and follow the trend.  For intraday, I think any dips will be bought heavily. So if you are to short for scalp be quick and decisive is my two cents. one thing i noted is last 5 min volume is extremely high. It could mean that selling exhaustion is near. I would observe price action around 5dma as reference pt. If it holds or bounce there buying the dip via weekly calls is not bad idea for long.

Use above chart as reference for buying intraday dip.

That is all I have for tonight. Enjoy your reading and Good Luck.



Tuesday, April 14, 2015

SPX PT: 2138-2141

During my previous post, I estimated short term target for $SPX of NLT: 2129.5. See link below for prev. post
http://marketstrending.blogspot.com/2015/04/spx-pt-no-less-than-21295.html



My next target is 2138-2141.

Sunday, April 12, 2015

AA II Bulls Sentiment

I suppose when sentiment is bad, it's time to go long?

IWM (Small caps)

This year may be the year for small caps. So 130-132 is my target.

Saturday, April 11, 2015

IP: Internal (Benjamin) Paper

Friday action was a clean bullish breakout with a very good chance of testing all time high, 57.9. So Will watch Monday action closely, any weakness is a good buy.  My target entry: 55.45.

SPY Intraday Monday 04/13

Currently I do not have any short term long holding in SPY. However I do think another push-up to 210.5 is possible before any short term pull back. So for intraday/ day traders, a pop at open is a SELL opportunity.

VIX

Still some more room to go down before bouncing. However, any huge dips now in $VIX, breaching the blue trend line, will likely strengthen the health of the bull market, and support the up trend to the new high. So up coming days volatility movement can be critical for equity market

$$$ Dollar Dollar Bill $$$

Nothing is going stop this baby from making new all time high. So long King Dollar is the trend.